Friday, April 4, 2008

Makeover of Orchard Road

I read about the $40 million makeover of Orchard Road.

Here are my wishes for this project:
a) Have a second level covered walkway to allow people to connect the whole stretch of Orchard Road. This can be linked to all the buildings.
b) Build a light monorail to run down Orchard Road connected to the walkway.
c) Have large multi-storey carparks on the fringe of Orchard Roads, connected to the monorail.

This will reduce the traffic congestion on Orchard Road. It will make shopping in Orchard Road more pleasant.

Change of address

The authority now requires a resident to provide documentary proof for a change of address in the NRIC records. The documents could be a bill sent to the resident in the new address. This can caused timing problem.

I wish to suggest a practical solution. The new resident can ask two neighbours to be witnesses to the residency. The neighbours particulars can be provided for the authority to make the verification.

This is simple and effective. It also encourges the new resident to knock on the doors of the neighbours.

Local Bus Services

I wish to introduce the concept of local bus services. I propose that it operates as follows:

a) Use light buses
b) Runs a specific route in a town
c) Uses the existing bus stops
d) Actively publicised through maps at bus stops
e) Operated by small operators
f) Licences to be given based on service level and commuter demand
g) Can be exempted from road tax and ERP, so as to bring down the cost for commuter
h) Fares to be controlled

Some taxi drivers may be interested to be operators of these light buses. This will reduce cost and create a more efficient public transport system.

Premium Bus Services

Is there a website that shows all the premium bus services that are available in Singapore?

It should show the pickup areas, drop off points, and the fares. Commuters can have an easy acces to the information instead of searching the many websites of the operators.

I hope that Land Transport Authority can be the central source of this information.

Loading for term insurance

If you are a smoker, or have an adverse family history of cancer or heart disease, you may have to pay a loading of up to 100% on the standard premium for term insurance. As the premium rate is quite low, this loading may be still quite affordable.

Read this article: http://www.tankinlian.com/course/usa.html

High unemployment among youths in S Korea

My friend in South Korea told me that there is a high rate of unemployment of youths. Employers are reluctant to increase employment as it is costly to downsize the workforce during economic slowdown. The trade unions are strong and impose high cost for termination of workers.

Some employers will recruit young workers as temporary employees and pay wages that are half the rate of permanent workers.

Lesson: If trade unions are too strong, employers are afraid to recruit more people. If trade unions are too weak, employers pay low wages. The soceity has to find the correct balance between what is good for business and fair wages for workers.

Leverage

Leverage is the amount of loans compared to equity. If the leverage is 1 time, the amount of loan is the same as the amount of equity.

Some hedge funds are leveraged by 10 times. The borrowing is 10 times of the equity of the investors. This is risky.

I recalled that at the time of its collapse, Bear Stearns was leveraged 30 times. This is far, too high. To make matters worse, the borrowings are short term and their investments are long term. When the lenders refused to refinance the borrowings, Bear Stearns become insolvent. If they had to sell their investments, the markets would collapse. Bear Strearns had to be rescued by J P Morgan.

Lesson: It is very bad for hedge funds and investment banks to be highly leveraged. Leverage of 10 times is too high. Leverage of 30 times is madness.

Personal savings for retirement

Hi Mr. Tan Kin Lian
I enjoyed your blog. My friend told me that the savings in CPF is not sufficient for retirement needs. I have to supplement it with personal savings to be invested for my retirement. What is the amount that I should save? How is this computed?

REPLY
I usually advice people to save 10% to 15% of their regular earnings for the future. This should be invested in a low cost fund, preferably an equity fund to obtain the best return.

This is explained in this FAQ:
http://www.tankinlian.com/articles/savings.html

Low cost funds

Dear Mr. Tan,
You referred to a low cost fund. What is the expense ratio that can be considered "low cost"? How do you find the expense ratio for a life insurance policy?

REPLY
If you are investing for the future, you should look for a fund that have an expense ratio of less than 1%. If you earn 6% and deduct an expense ratio of 1%, you get a net yield of 5%.

For a life insurance policy, the front end and other charges will reduce your yield by about 2.5%. It is quite high.

Read this FAQ:
http://www.tankinlian.com/faq/expense.html

Difficult to find parking space

I visited a friend at his office in Bukit Merah. There is no parking space in his building or in the large building next to it. I had to park at a multi-story car park a few blocks away.

I concluded that it would have been more convenient to use public transport or to travel by taxi (in spite of the high fare). It is becoming quite inconvenient (and expensive) to use a private car.

Singapore and Global Equities

Hi Mr. Tan,
You advised many people to invest in the STI ETF. This is invested only in Singapore. Should they be more diversified and invest in global equities? What are your views?

REPLY
It is all right for a Singapore resident to invest in Singapore equities. If you invest in the STI ETF, you are quite well diversified.

If you wish to take a global perspective, or you wish to reside abroad, it is all right to be invested in global equities.

This FAQ shows the past yields of the various asset classes, including Singapore and global equities:
http://www.tankinlian.com/faq/returns.html